St Paul’s Political Reset: Voters Chose Urgency Over Vision
Kaohly Her didn’t win because she ran to Carter’s right or left. She won because she ran toward the city’s lived reality, and voters followed.
On November 4, Saint Paul voters shocked the political world by opting to elect Kaohly Her to replace Mayor Melvin Carter, providing Minnesotans with the biggest political upset since U.S. Representative Jim Oberstar was ousted by Chip Cravack in the 2010 “shellacking” midterm elections.
While Mayor Carter is transitioning to his next chapter, it’s important to note at the onset here that the City and people of Saint Paul were well served by his leadership overall and our political process could use more leaders like the Mayor who energetically and unapologetically put compassion and optimism at the forefront of their politics and policies.
Her’s victory was the collision of political fatigue, demographic change, and a candidate who understood the city’s anxiety better than the incumbent did. Below, I offer three quick takes (and potential lessons for Democrats) from Minnesota’s biggest political upset of the decade.
Carter lost the narrative he once defined.
When Carter was first elected (and indeed throughout his administration, up to and including his admirable concession speech), he embodied optimism and inspiration. The Mayor offered innovative approaches to police accountability, climate change, cash-assistance pilots, and a new governing style. But in the years since, the story in St. Paul drifted away from transformation and toward the basics — public safety, housing, and day-to-day livability.
Carter did not lose because he failed spectacularly; he lost because voters felt unmoored.
Rising car thefts, visible disorder, and downtown stagnation created an ambient anxiety that his administration struggled to address with clarity. Her didn’t need to attack his record aggressively — she only had to offer urgency where he offered vision.
Kaohly Her spoke the language of “practical progressivism”
Her threaded the needed that has historically defined successful urban DFL politics:
progressive on values
pragmatic on delivery
Her didn’t reject Carter’s policy priorities; she reframed them. Where he talked about systems change, she talked about execution. Where he talked about structural reform, she talked about measurable outcomes. Her’s message resonated with voters who still believe in progressive governance but want basic city functions solved now, not in a pilot program five years from now.
Her didn’t run against progressivism. She ran against ambiguity. Going forward, DFL candidates who rely solely on movement credentials, endorsements, and ideological signaling may find themselves outflanked by challengers who speak directly to operational failures — potholes, permitting, police staffing, and business corridors that feel stuck. The electorate is demanding left-of-center leadership that actually manages.
Voter Coalition Math Shifted Underneath Carter’s Feet
St. Paul’s electorate is diversifying, aging, and moving through generational change. Younger renters and longtime homeowners — two groups often at odds — both felt unheard. Carter maintained strong support in progressive ideological circles, but Her built a broader coalition across:
Southeast Asian communities,
moderate homeowners in Highland and Mac-Groveland,
unions frustrated by inconsistent city hall engagement,
new Americans seeking more direct representation.
Her’s campaign didn’t fracture the left; it expanded it beyond its traditional cultural boundaries.
Precincts stretching from Mac-Groveland through Highland Park delivered the largest margins for Her. These neighborhoods — higher-turnout, older homeowners, politically progressive but institutionally cautious — once formed a reliable pro-Carter bloc. This time, they broke sharply for Her, driven by concerns over:
public safety,
property tax pressures,
a perception that City Hall was inattentive to day-to-day operations.
Her’s win doesn’t foreshadow a centrist wave or a progressive retreat. It signals a new urban voter demand: deliver the vision you promise — or voters will find someone who can.
Bottom Line:
Melvin Carter didn’t lose because he governed too boldly. He lost because the city moved into a phase that demanded a different kind of boldness — one rooted in delivery, not design. Kaohly Her didn’t win because she ran to Carter’s right or left. She won because she ran toward the city’s lived reality, and voters followed.
Ultimately, Saint Paul voters were hungrier for results than rhetoric.