State of the Race: GOP Gubernatorial Primary Begins to Take Shape
Each potential GOP candidate provides the DFL with unique political challenges and opportunities
The Big Picture:
Minnesota Republicans are heading into a competitive gubernatorial primary ahead of the 2026 election, seeking a nominee to oust incumbent DFL Governor Tim Walz, who is seeking a third term. While no Republican has won statewide office in Minnesota since 2006, the recent fraud scandals that have roiled the Walz administration coupled with the difficulty of securing an unprecedented third term, have Republicans feeling a sense of electoral optimism at the gubernatorial level they have not felt since the days of Tim Pawlenty.
Key Players
Ten candidates are currently seeking the GOP nomination for Governor in Minnesota but most political observers (this writer included) believe it will be a four way race between the candidates below. Regardless of who Republicans ultimately nominate, it will not be a cake walk for Governor Walz to reassure and win over both independent and blue collar voters alike.
• Lisa Demuth — Minnesota House Speaker and GOP frontrunner with legislative leadership experience.
• Kendall Qualls — Business executive showing early grassroots support in GOP polls.
• Mike Lindell — MyPillow CEO and national conservative figure with high name ID but controversial profile.
• Scott Jensen — Former GOP nominee who ran statewide in 2022, bringing experience and name recognition.
Demuth: Pragmatic Establishment Pick with Swing Appeal
The case for Demuth:
As House Speaker, Demuth brings institutional credibility and governing experience, which could help bridge the divide between establishment and moderate Republicans — and appeal to independent voters in the general election. Her leadership in a tied Legislature signals an ability to govern in divided government.
DFL opposition challenge:
Demuth’s history of bipartisan negotiation complicates simple attacks on her as an ideological hard-liner. DFL strategists will likely focus on tying her to Trump and national GOP agendas while highlighting any legislative compromises she struck with Democrats. Her historic candidacy as a Black woman could broaden her general election appeal but also offers DFL messaging fodder about shifting party identity.
Opportunity for DFL:
Pitch her as out of step with Minnesota’s mainstream on key social and economic issues while portraying her as aligned with conservative national priorities that Minnesota voters may reject.
Qualls: Outsider Businessman with Grassroots Current
The case for Qualls:
Kendall Qualls, a business executive and past statewide contender, showed early support in GOP straw polls and can position himself as a fresh alternative to career politicians. His grassroots appeal and prior campaign infrastructure give him credibility among statewide conservative activists.
DFL opposition challenge:
Qualls lacks broad name recognition beyond GOP circles, which could limit his reach against Walz unless he significantly expands his profile. DFL strategists can paint him as inexperienced on governance, questioning his readiness to manage Minnesota’s complex state government.
Opportunity for DFL:
Emphasize his lack of executive experience and contrast it with the stability and continuity Gov. Walz offers, particularly on economy and public safety issues.
Lindell: High Profile, High Risk Disruption Candidate
The case for Lindell:
Mike Lindell enters the race with national media visibility and a fervent base tied to his lengthy support of former President Trump and conservative media persona. That profile can energize parts of the GOP base and increase turnout in a GOP primary.
DFL opposition challenge:
Lindell’s prominence is a double-edged sword. His association with false election claims and national conspiracy narratives gives the DFL substantial ammunition to frame the GOP nominee as extreme and out of step with Minnesota values. Critics already brand him a conspiracy theorist and fringe figure.
Opportunity for DFL:
Leverage Lindell’s record to drive turnout among moderate and independent voters by framing the general election as a choice between stability and radicalism.
Jensen: Established GOP Name with Previous Statewide Run
The case for Jensen:
Scott Jensen brings name recognition from his 2022 campaign, where he won the GOP nomination and lost narrowly to Walz. He is a physician and former state senator with a track record of GOP activism.
DFL opposition challenge:
Jensen’s positions, especially on social issues and past controversial remarks, provide easy targets for DFL messaging. His 2022 performance suggests he may struggle to expand beyond the GOP base without moderating on issues like health care and education.
Opportunity for DFL:
Use Jensen’s past loss to paint him as unelectable in a statewide contest. Tie him to polarizing Republican stances, particularly on abortion and election integrity, to suppress crossover and independent support.
Bottom Line
The GOP primary dynamic in Minnesota features a mix of establishment pragmatism (Demuth), outsider appeal (Qualls), high-profile disruption (Lindell), and known Republican brand (Jensen). For the DFL, the challenge will be to solidify a coherent narrative that contrasts Gov. Walz’s incumbency and stability with whatever nominee emerges — whether that be framed as too extreme, too inexperienced, or too tied to national GOP polarization.
The general election in a swing state with evolving demographics suggests both opportunities and pitfalls for each GOP contender.